As of January 2019, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK - TurkStat) has changed its presentation of Turkey’s economic confidence index to allow for seasonal adjustments. Accordingly, it has recalculated past index calculations for 2018 to adjust for seasonal adjustments.
According to figures provided by TurkStat, Turkey’s seasonally adjusted economic confidence index fell by 8.5% to 77.5 points in May 2019 from 84.7 points in the previous month of April. This fall follows an increase of 3.4% in the previous month. The index was at 105.2 points at the beginning of 2018. It then fell down to 75.2 points in October 2018 before showing a small recovery.
Decreases in the consumer confidence sub-index of 12.9% to 55.3 points, in the services sector confidence sub-index of 4.4% to 79.4 points, in the real sector sub-index of 5.3% to 94.7 points, in the construction sector confidence sub-index of 7.7% to 49.8 points and in the retail trade confidence sub-index of 0.7% to 89.9 points all contributed to the overall increase in the economic confidence index in May 2019.
Turkey’s economic confidence index is still significantly below the crucial 100 points level. In Turkey, the economic confidence index is a composite index that covers encompasses consumers’ and producers’ evaluations, expectations and tendencies about the general economic situation. The index is produced by a combination of a weighted aggregation of normalized sub-indices of consumer confidence, seasonally adjusted real sector (manufacturing industry), services, retail trade and construction confidence indices. The economic confidence index indicates an optimistic outlook about the general economic situation when the index is above 100, and contrarily indicates a pessimistic outlook when it is below 100.