The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK – TürkStat) has presented the seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index for September 2019 as 55.8 points, which is a fall of 4.3% on the figure for the previous month. The probability of savings sub-index is particularly low at 22.8 points, reflecting a low propensity of Turks towards savings in general.
The consumer confidence’s sub-indices were as follows :
- The probability of savings index increased by 0.6% to 22.8 points in September 2019 compared with the previous month.
- The general economic situation expectation index decreased by 4.4% to 71 points in September 2019, compared with the previous month.
- The financial situation expectation of households index decreased by 4.9% to 74 points in September 2019, compared with the previous month. .
- The number of people unemployed expectation index decreased by 5.1% to 55.3 points in September 2019, compared with the previous month.
The above sub-indices show expectations over the next 12 months.
As of January 2019, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK - TürkStat) has changed its presentation of Turkey’s consumer confidence index to allow for season adjustments. Accordingly, it has recalculated past index calculations for 2018 to adjust for seasonal adjustments. Turkey’s consumer confidence index fell from 72.3 points in January 2018 to 58.2 points in December, with the lowest figure being 57.3 points in October 2018. The seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index fell from 72 points in January 2018 to 58.7 points in December 2018, with the lowest figure being 57.6 points in October 2018.
In Turkey, the Consumer Confidence Index survey aims to measure present situation assessments and future period expectations of consumers' on personal financial standing and general economic course and to determine consumers' expenditure and saving tendencies for the near future. The survey covers a randomly selected sample of all individuals at the age of 15 and above having a job in urban and rural areas. The index is evaluated between 0 and 200. The reading above 100 means consumers are optimistic and below 100 are pessimistic.
The current level of confidence reflects a pessimistic outlook by consumers and would need to rise above 100 to indicate optimism. The index is considered an important gauge of the overall health of the economy in that it assesses the confidence of people to spend money, which in turn is an indication of the vitality of the economy.